Last Edited 6th March 2018 01:00
Bill Gates called Cryptocurrency a ‘technological tour de force’ . Warren Buffet claims that Cryptocurrency is a ‘mirage, basically’. The world is still divided on the impact and importance of
, but that isn’t
necessarily a bad thing.
Human progression has never been straightforward or linear. Variations
to the status quo have to be introduced, withstand the test
of time and societal norms, before they can hope to be widely adopted.
Cryptocurrency is just another one of society’s experiments; it is therefore
to our benefit to follow scientific protocol, and properly understand its
origins, development, and potential impacts.
This essay, while late to the party, attempts to do just that.
It is interesting to note that all currency so far
evolved due to
Distrust.
The form of fiat currency as we know it today evolved from
.
Consider Alice and Bob.
In simpler days, if Alice and her tribe wanted to survive together in the
wild, the easiest manner by which to do so would be to work together and
share the benefits over an evening bonfire. This, though grossly simplified,
is an idea propagated by Karl Marx and Communism.
As society developed and means of travel became more sophisticated,
communities based in different locations became more interconnected. Bartering
evolved as a result for both communities to benefit from their produce at
home. Alice, could trade her apples for Bob’s fish, at a mutually agreed
exchange rate.
Yet, bartering was an imperfect means of trading. If Alice wanted Bob’s
fish in the winter (where Bob would have difficulty with seasonal shortage),
or Bob had wanted Alice’s apples in the summer, where the trees were not
yet fully grown, neither trade would have been possible. Alice and
Bob now had
to answer the problem of the
In economic terms, the problem occurs due to the improbability of two
traders wishing to trade their skills or products at a similar time
in an economy fuelled only by barter trade.
To deal with this situation, Alice would trade her apples for Charlie’s
bushels of wheat at a mutually agreed ratio. With the wheat now acting as
an intermediate buffer, Alice is now able to obtain Bob’s fishes in the
other seasons, and vice versa. Unknowingly, Alice, Bob, and Charlie
contributed to the development of the concept of money. In modern
monetary economics definitions,
Money was created to fulfil three functions:
Early trading often relied on livestock or produce as
, because these were the most conveninient choices around. However, oxen could fall ill and die, while produce goes bad eventually. The perishability of these commodity money reduced their function as a storage of value
If you traded in
terms of oxen, how do you buy half an oxen worth of items? By measuring the
weight of metals, they could be divided accordingly for the purchase of an
item. Central authorities started grabbing onto this idea, and forged them
into common denominations to further increase their convenience. Coinage can
be traced back to roughly
900 B.C.
in Sparta or about
600 B.C in Greece.
While coinage was decidedly more suitable as a medium of exchange than oxen and wheat, as
society progressed and started producing items and services of a greater
value, it became necessary to innovate to avoid having to lug huge amounts
of metal for large purchases.
while traditional money worked well for purchases, people started wondering if there was a more convenient system to handle frequent transactions. To fulfil this need,
Instead of having the money swap hands all the time, they started keeping a
record of all the transactions. Now, when Dion buys an apple from Alice
for 1 dollar, the record will note: ‘Dion pays Alice 1 dollar’. At
the end of every month, all of them will come together and review the
record. If they have a negative balance, they contribute into the pot. If
they have a positive balance, they withdraw from the pot. Due to the zero-sum
nature of the record ledger, the system is guaranteed to work, if everybody
follows the rules.
Increased convenience provides increased ease of greed, and therefore
greater distrust amongst users. Modern transaction systems therefore
have to show their users that they are reliable against potential attacks,
frauds, or shocks.
In the modern world, central banks have taken on this mantle of responsibility
through
policy implementation.
Security measures are in the form of authentication, such as requiring
a signature to verify cheques, the CVV (Card Verification Value)/CSC
(Card Security Code) on your credit cards, and PIN (Personal Identification Number).
These measures serve as a deterrence to potential attackers, and
help to ensure that you are in posession of what you have earned and
deposited with them.
Central banks are also in charge of
Central Banks, and to a greater extent fiat currency, are as much political constructs as they are
economic constructs. They provide an avenue through which policymakers and
financial institutions may enact policies to manipulate and regulate
expenditure. The details are sufficiently long to warrant an article by
themselves, but interested readers can find out more
here,
here,
here, and
here.
With Great Power comes Great Responsibility
While they might be awarded with such powers, if the polices put in place are ineffective, then the
common population suffers from the repercussions. In the 20th century, this
happened in many countries, such as
Yugoslavia,
Germany, and
Hungary, where
actions of the central bank was pinned with the blame of causing the
episodes.
Referencing the above situations, members of the affected public are
growingly dissatisfied with centralisation of power.
Understanding Cryptocurrency's
is no easy task.
In 2009, an unknown programmer Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a solution to decentralised currency.. The simplified protocol functions in four steps:
Each user is
through Elliptic Curve Cryptography methods
is 6.23 * 1056. As an illustration of how great that number is, the fastest recorded supercomputer, Tianhe-2, is theoretically capable of running 55 * 1015 calculations per second. Assuming everyone in the world has a Tianhe-2, and were simultaneously attempting to crack your key pair, it would take about 1023 years, which is still orders of magnitude higher than the estimated age of the universe. This means that the system
Due to the complexity of the key pair,
it is almost impossible to regain your key pair with no information
whatsoever. If you happen to lose the key pair (e.g. due to transferring
from one desktop to another), then all the currency in it is lost. A
staggering
2.77 million Bitcoins
are lost and permanently out of circulation.
This is an important figure to note, because the Bitcoin algorithm only
generates 21 million Bitcoins in its lifetime, so the above-mentioned amount
accounts for more than 10% of the entire future Bitcoin economy.
Say Dion wishes to give Ephraem 10 Bitcoins. He will generate a message containing the transaction details, and provide
Authentication over the digital realm is an interesting question. In an
arena where all data can be represented by bits of ‘1’ and ‘0’s, how
might we provide authentication in a meaningful manner without the risk
of attackers stealing it?
Cryptography comes to the rescue. In the study of cryptography we are
exposed to functions which are easy to compute in one direction but not
the other. An example is the computation of square roots. While it is
easy to verify if the answer is correct (by multiplying it by itself),
it is much harder to obtain the square root.
Bitcoin uses an algorithm known as the
Elliptic Curve Digital Signature
Algorithm (ECDSA). Through this algorithm, the user is able
to generate a 'digital signature' with his private key and the
transaction details. This 'digital signature' can be easily authenticated by other
users with only knowledge of the transaction details and the public key,
while it is computationally intensive for another user to
figure out what the secret key is.
Now that we have generated transactions, we need to figure out a protocol
to add them into the digital ledger that allows us to address conflicts and
prevent fraud.
To do this, we draw inspiration from the days of commodity money.
As previously mentioned, early commodity money was in the form of livestock
and produce. Why was it that we were perfectly fine with people rearing
more livestock or harvesting more produce but not when people tried to
counterfeit notes?
While it requires a lot of work from the user to rear livestock or plant
more produce, counterfeiting money as a task possesses relatively less
barriers. We were happy to award the farmers accordingly by letting them
use the livestock or produce as money.
To emulate that in a Cryptocurrency, we make computers solve
computationally intensive tasks to show a 'proof of work'. This
idea was used since 1997, although back then it was known as
Hashcash
, and it was created to counter spammers
by asking for
Partial hash collisions demanded a hash (encoded message, Hashcash uses
the Secure Hash Algorithm-1, or SHA-1) that matches partially with another
string. For example, in Hashcash, if an email was sent at 2003
June 26th by adam@cypherspace.org, then the computer will go
through all possibilities to determine a string (line of text) like this:
0:030626:adam@cypherspace.org:xxxxxxxx
where the computer will loop through all possibilities of the
'xxxxxxx' to find a string that when encoded in SHA-1, produces
a hash that starts with '0's.
The reason why this worked was because SHA-1 produces a very
different output even if the input changes a little. As an example, the
empty string (line of characters) produces the following SHA-1 hash:
da39a3ee5e6b4b0d3255bfef95601890afd80709
whereas the string ‘a’ produces the following SHA-1 hash:
86f7e437faa5a7fce15d1ddcb9eaeaea377667b8
Take for instance the string ‘AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA’, which
when encoded in SHA-1, produces:
e04976c6e1ce44aa1840b07b57021c158a11eafc
whereas the string ‘AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAB’ produces:
427b014d063769f93d018c7ed1336cd77edaf38d
The output changes in a fashion which cannot be reliably predicted by
computers or algorithms today, so the only way to determine the string
from the hash is through pure guesswork. To complete the example above,
a possible string could be:
0:030626:adam@cypherspace.org:6470e06d773e05a8
Which, when encoded in SHA-1, gives us:
00000000c70db7389f241b8f441fcf068aead3f0
It is worth noting that we are capable of modifying the computational
difficulty by specifying a different condition. For example, we could
require the system to match the first 12 digits to be '0's. Each additional
digit increases the difficulty (and therefore the time taken) by approximately
16 times. Interestingly, while methods like these are use in encryption,
there has been no rigorous proof that cracking (deriving the inverse
function of) the Secure Hash Algorithm is impossible.
B-money failed to establish how agreement on the digital ledger could be achieved, while RPOW relied on a trusted server to verify the transactions.
The protocol works as follows:
Firstly, unconfirmed transactions are gathered as a group into a 'block'.
Next, computers seek the 'solution'
, a string to append to the end of the block that
allows the SHA-256 hash of the block to fulfil a partial hash collision
(i.e. the starting characters of the hash are '0's).
It is worth noting for Bitcoin that modifications will be made
every 2016 blocks (roughly two weeks) by increasing the difficulty of the partial hash collision such that it takes approximately 10 minutes for each block to be found. This is an important feature because of Moore’s Law suggesting that computing power doubles every two years, and Bitcoin is structured such that new Bitcoins enter the system in a orderly, predictable manner unperturbed by external factors
This linking is done by appending the 'solution' of the previous 'block' to the header of the next 'block'. As SHA algorithms produce an unpredictable output if the input is altered even slightly, this means that no attacker can easily alter the ledger, or history of transactions, without having to re-compute all the 'solutions' again.
As of writing, the Bitcoin community has decided on 6 as this magic number, meaning that a transaction is really only considered through if it is in the current blockchain, and there are 6 blocks after it.
However, the above assumes that Ephraem is working alone. In
reality, miners usually work together in a group, known as a ‘mining
guild’. Each miner contributes computing power, and any Bitcoin earned
is shared amongst everyone in the guild, which allows for more reliable
returns on mining. BTC Guild, currently the largest Bitcoin mining guild,
has obtained 6 consecutive blocks in a row
multiple
times. While BTC Guild
conducts its mining operations legitimately, the fact that this
situation has occurred shows us that the potential that a determined group of people may spoil
the Bitcoin market is present.
Before moving on, it is essential that we achieve a holistic view of
Cryptocurrency by examining their potential socio-economical impacts.
1. Mobility of Money
Cryptocurrency can be easily transferred between
, if both users run the same code and adhere to the same protocol. The lack of a middleman in such a scenario therefore reduces transaction fees, and its digital implementation increases the mobility of money
In Argentina, Bitcoin was portrayed to “
offer a
safe haven” from rapidly depreciating government peso.
Research
has shown
that
micro-credit provides a repeatedly proven method to help families
escape the poverty cycle. Venezuelan citizens have also turned to using
cryptocurrency mining as a means of
combating hyperinflation.
Silk Road, a darknet market for illegal drugs,
conducts all its transactions via
Bitcoin, offering its users privacy to escape the long arm of the law.
Nearly 300,000 Bitcoins (approximately 3.12 trillion USD) were seized,
and Bitcoin experienced a drop of nearly 25% in terms of USD/Bitcoin
exchange rates when the news was announced.
With the widespread adoption of Cryptocurrencies at the present,
and the peer-to-peer nature of implementation, it is almost impossible to
impose a blanket ban. Consider as analogy the laws against content piracy
via torrents. Legal authorities face huge difficulties in tracking down
users torrenting copyrighted materials, and are therefore unable to execute
the laws in a meaningful manner. Like Cryptocurrencies, the act of torrenting
itself is not illegal, but the potential for abuse is present and should
be discouraged.
A 2017 research concluded that various strategies were capable of identifying up to 60% of Bitcoin users of the MyBitcoin service. Vulnerabilities exist both in the network (through identifying and tracing transactions) and out of the network (posting public keys on forums, IP addresses, geographical information, etc) which when combined would offer the potential of unmasking the identity of a user.
- when trades happened behind the veil of cryptography, the government has a harder time imposing the appropriate taxes. Cryptocurrency thus provides a tax haven
, with one of the more well-known works
being Mundell’s theory on
Optimum Currency Areas
, further developed by
Kenen
and
McKinnon
. Optimum Currency Areas analyse the potential of geographical
neighbours forming an economic or monetary union through adoption
of a common currency. It argues that a successful currency
union requires four criteria: Labour mobility, Capital mobility, Risk-sharing
system, and Common business cycles.
The 2009 European Sovereign Debt Crisis highlighted the importance of
some of these criteria. Originally, the European Monetary Union enacted
a clause that called for a no-bailout policy, intended to ensure that
the growth of countries in the union will not be dragged down by other
countries. In 2010, however, the
European committee realised that this was unfeasible
and unsustainable. Without any means to help the Euro pull through
shocks together, the currency union bears no meaning in crises.
To attest to this, the stability of the US Dollar is commonly
attributed to the mechanisms which are in
place to allow the Federal Government of the United States to provide
fiscal transfers to states as a stabilising measure, allowing for shock
absorption and greater sustainability
. In jail cells it is common to see cigarettes or ramen used as money for other objects; Tide detergent bottles were noted to have been used by drug dealers. These currencies see localised usage as a method
virtual currencies. These monetary systems are constructs meant to facilitate the game’s economy, as another ends for players to work towards. Yet, in recent times it has been noted that these virtual currencies could also be treated as an alternate currency. While often small in impact, Second Life (which was registered to have a million active users per month) and its in-game currency Linden Dollars have came under scrutiny. A 2012 European Central Bank report was published to analyse the potential price and financial stability impacts virtual currencies had on real currencies. Conclusions were drawn that at the point in time of writing,
this was provided that the scope and adoption continued to be limited.
Optimistically, the report even predicted that such schemes would increase
financial innovation and provide users with greater convenience. In 2015
another report was published,
finding that risks are entailed when dealing
with these systems, but otherwise sees no need to provide modifications to
the current legal framework.
In contrast to Linden Dollars, QQ-coins were introduced
as an acceptable payment method for auctions on Taobao.com, and were noted
to have been involved in cases where gamblers attempted to circumvent the
country’s strict anti-gambling laws.
With their adoption becoming more commonplace, the currency substitution
effect of Cryptocurrencies can not be neglected. An increasing lean towards
such payment methods will see a reduction in central banks’ ability to
influence short-term interest rates, which limits measures to encourage or
discourage growth based on a country’s position.
and potential for evolution will benefit society.