Thesis in a Tweet: Cryptocurrency

Last Edited 6th March 2018 01:00

by walnutdust



Bill Gates called Cryptocurrency a ‘technological tour de force’ . Warren Buffet claims that Cryptocurrency is a ‘mirage, basically’. The world is still divided on the impact and importance of

, but that isn’t necessarily a bad thing.

Human progression has never been straightforward or linear. Variations to the status quo have to be introduced, withstand the test of time and societal norms, before they can hope to be widely adopted. Cryptocurrency is just another one of society’s experiments; it is therefore to our benefit to follow scientific protocol, and properly understand its origins, development, and potential impacts.

This essay, while late to the party, attempts to do just that.

It is interesting to note that all currency so far

evolved due to

Distrust.



Convenience, Mother of Currency

The form of fiat currency as we know it today evolved from

.

Consider Alice and Bob.

In simpler days, if Alice and her tribe wanted to survive together in the wild, the easiest manner by which to do so would be to work together and share the benefits over an evening bonfire. This, though grossly simplified, is an idea propagated by Karl Marx and Communism.

As society developed and means of travel became more sophisticated, communities based in different locations became more interconnected. Bartering evolved as a result for both communities to benefit from their produce at home. Alice, could trade her apples for Bob’s fish, at a mutually agreed exchange rate.

Yet, bartering was an imperfect means of trading. If Alice wanted Bob’s fish in the winter (where Bob would have difficulty with seasonal shortage), or Bob had wanted Alice’s apples in the summer, where the trees were not yet fully grown, neither trade would have been possible. Alice and Bob now had

to answer the problem of the



In economic terms, the problem occurs due to the improbability of two traders wishing to trade their skills or products at a similar time in an economy fuelled only by barter trade.

To deal with this situation, Alice would trade her apples for Charlie’s bushels of wheat at a mutually agreed ratio. With the wheat now acting as an intermediate buffer, Alice is now able to obtain Bob’s fishes in the other seasons, and vice versa. Unknowingly, Alice, Bob, and Charlie contributed to the development of the concept of money. In modern monetary economics definitions,

Money was created to fulfil three functions:



  1. Medium of Exchange
  2. Units of Account
  3. Storage of Value

Early trading often relied on livestock or produce as

, because these were the most conveninient choices around. However, oxen could fall ill and die, while produce goes bad eventually. The perishability of these commodity money reduced their function as a storage of value

. Precious metals became the next step forward, because they were non-perishable, hard to obtain, and



If you traded in terms of oxen, how do you buy half an oxen worth of items? By measuring the weight of metals, they could be divided accordingly for the purchase of an item. Central authorities started grabbing onto this idea, and forged them into common denominations to further increase their convenience. Coinage can be traced back to roughly 900 B.C. in Sparta or about 600 B.C in Greece.

While coinage was decidedly more suitable as a medium of exchange than oxen and wheat, as society progressed and started producing items and services of a greater value, it became necessary to innovate to avoid having to lug huge amounts of metal for large purchases.

Paper notes for larger denominations of value became the next step forward, and are what we commonly use today.

But laziness defines all humans, and

while traditional money worked well for purchases, people started wondering if there was a more convenient system to handle frequent transactions. To fulfil this need,



Instead of having the money swap hands all the time, they started keeping a record of all the transactions. Now, when Dion buys an apple from Alice for 1 dollar, the record will note: ‘Dion pays Alice 1 dollar’. At the end of every month, all of them will come together and review the record. If they have a negative balance, they contribute into the pot. If they have a positive balance, they withdraw from the pot. Due to the zero-sum nature of the record ledger, the system is guaranteed to work, if everybody follows the rules.



However, there will always be



Distrust, Father of Currency

Increased convenience provides increased ease of greed, and therefore greater distrust amongst users. Modern transaction systems therefore have to show their users that they are reliable against potential attacks, frauds, or shocks.

In the modern world, central banks have taken on this mantle of responsibility through

policy implementation.

Security measures are in the form of authentication, such as requiring a signature to verify cheques, the CVV (Card Verification Value)/CSC (Card Security Code) on your credit cards, and PIN (Personal Identification Number). These measures serve as a deterrence to potential attackers, and help to ensure that you are in posession of what you have earned and deposited with them.

Central banks are also in charge of

Central Banks, and to a greater extent fiat currency, are as much political constructs as they are economic constructs. They provide an avenue through which policymakers and financial institutions may enact policies to manipulate and regulate expenditure. The details are sufficiently long to warrant an article by themselves, but interested readers can find out more here, here, here, and here.

With Great Power comes Great Responsibility

While they might be awarded with such powers, if the polices put in place are ineffective, then the common population suffers from the repercussions. In the 20th century, this happened in many countries, such as Yugoslavia, Germany, and Hungary, where actions of the central bank was pinned with the blame of causing the episodes.

Referencing the above situations, members of the affected public are growingly dissatisfied with centralisation of power.

Increasing distrust for the central bank has resulted in calls for decentralisation of currency.

However, several procedural questions have to be answered before effective decentralisation can occur.
  1. Given that it is likely through digital means, how do we ensure the privacy of the users (i.e. not require or reveal more information of the user than necessary)?
  2. Clearly, if the move to decentralisation was done to avoid needing to trust any one entity in particular, how do we keep track of transactions?
  3. If there are any conflicts, how do we address them?
  4. How do we avoid fraud?
Cryptocurrency sought to answer the above questions.

Pause and take a breather.

Understanding Cryptocurrency's

is no easy task.



Creation of Bitcoin

In 2009, an unknown programmer Satoshi Nakamoto proposed a solution to decentralised currency.. The simplified protocol functions in four steps:



  1. Set-up. Each user in the system has a public key and a private key. They also keep track of every transaction that has taken place, much alike a ‘ledger’.
  2. Transaction. Every potential transaction is authorised by the payer by the private key, and this authorisation is verifiable with knowledge of only the public key.
  3. Blockchain. Multiple unprocessed transactions are drawn, and a ‘miner’ forms a block with them. The ‘miner’ then finds a string that fulfils certain criterias, and propagate the block on the network.
  4. Conflict Resolution. If conflicting ‘ledgers’ are detected, then every user will keep track of every copy, and select the longest chain where possible.


1. Set-up

Each user is

through Elliptic Curve Cryptography methods

. The number of

is 6.23 * 1056. As an illustration of how great that number is, the fastest recorded supercomputer, Tianhe-2, is theoretically capable of running 55 * 1015 calculations per second. Assuming everyone in the world has a Tianhe-2, and were simultaneously attempting to crack your key pair, it would take about 1023 years, which is still orders of magnitude higher than the estimated age of the universe. This means that the system

makes it theoretically impossible for someone else to either



Due to the complexity of the key pair, it is almost impossible to regain your key pair with no information whatsoever. If you happen to lose the key pair (e.g. due to transferring from one desktop to another), then all the currency in it is lost. A staggering 2.77 million Bitcoins are lost and permanently out of circulation. This is an important figure to note, because the Bitcoin algorithm only generates 21 million Bitcoins in its lifetime, so the above-mentioned amount accounts for more than 10% of the entire future Bitcoin economy.



2. Transaction

Say Dion wishes to give Ephraem 10 Bitcoins. He will generate a message containing the transaction details, and provide



Authentication over the digital realm is an interesting question. In an arena where all data can be represented by bits of ‘1’ and ‘0’s, how might we provide authentication in a meaningful manner without the risk of attackers stealing it?

Cryptography comes to the rescue. In the study of cryptography we are exposed to functions which are easy to compute in one direction but not the other. An example is the computation of square roots. While it is easy to verify if the answer is correct (by multiplying it by itself), it is much harder to obtain the square root.

Bitcoin uses an algorithm known as the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA). Through this algorithm, the user is able to generate a 'digital signature' with his private key and the transaction details. This 'digital signature' can be easily authenticated by other users with only knowledge of the transaction details and the public key, while it is computationally intensive for another user to figure out what the secret key is.

At this point in time, the transaction is not yet 'confirmed'. However, it is added to a pool consisting of all the other 'unconfirmed' transactions made on the network.



3. Blockchain, Conflict Resolution, and Fraud Prevention

Now that we have generated transactions, we need to figure out a protocol to add them into the digital ledger that allows us to address conflicts and prevent fraud.

To do this, we draw inspiration from the days of commodity money.

As previously mentioned, early commodity money was in the form of livestock and produce. Why was it that we were perfectly fine with people rearing more livestock or harvesting more produce but not when people tried to counterfeit notes?



While it requires a lot of work from the user to rear livestock or plant more produce, counterfeiting money as a task possesses relatively less barriers. We were happy to award the farmers accordingly by letting them use the livestock or produce as money.

To emulate that in a Cryptocurrency, we make computers solve computationally intensive tasks to show a 'proof of work'. This idea was used since 1997, although back then it was known as Hashcash , and it was created to counter spammers by asking for



Partial hash collisions demanded a hash (encoded message, Hashcash uses the Secure Hash Algorithm-1, or SHA-1) that matches partially with another string. For example, in Hashcash, if an email was sent at 2003 June 26th by adam@cypherspace.org, then the computer will go through all possibilities to determine a string (line of text) like this:

0:030626:adam@cypherspace.org:xxxxxxxx

where the computer will loop through all possibilities of the 'xxxxxxx' to find a string that when encoded in SHA-1, produces a hash that starts with '0's.

The reason why this worked was because SHA-1 produces a very different output even if the input changes a little. As an example, the empty string (line of characters) produces the following SHA-1 hash:

da39a3ee5e6b4b0d3255bfef95601890afd80709

whereas the string ‘a’ produces the following SHA-1 hash:

86f7e437faa5a7fce15d1ddcb9eaeaea377667b8

Take for instance the string ‘AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA’, which when encoded in SHA-1, produces:

e04976c6e1ce44aa1840b07b57021c158a11eafc

whereas the string ‘AAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAB’ produces:

427b014d063769f93d018c7ed1336cd77edaf38d

The output changes in a fashion which cannot be reliably predicted by computers or algorithms today, so the only way to determine the string from the hash is through pure guesswork. To complete the example above, a possible string could be:

0:030626:adam@cypherspace.org:6470e06d773e05a8

Which, when encoded in SHA-1, gives us:

00000000c70db7389f241b8f441fcf068aead3f0

It is worth noting that we are capable of modifying the computational difficulty by specifying a different condition. For example, we could require the system to match the first 12 digits to be '0's. Each additional digit increases the difficulty (and therefore the time taken) by approximately 16 times. Interestingly, while methods like these are use in encryption, there has been no rigorous proof that cracking (deriving the inverse function of) the Secure Hash Algorithm is impossible.



Building on this idea, B-money and Reusable Proofs of Work (RPOW) by Wei Dai and Hal Finney respectively implemented a 'proof of work' by requiring that the computers calculate a hash before the computer earn the money. While they came close to what Nakamoto proposed, they were unable to fully execute it in a manner that would allow

B-money failed to establish how agreement on the digital ledger could be achieved, while RPOW relied on a trusted server to verify the transactions.



This was the reason why Bitcoin was thought of as revolutionary. It established a protocol which ensured that:



  • Verification could be done by any user on the network.
  • No trust on any one user or group was required.

The protocol works as follows:

Firstly, unconfirmed transactions are gathered as a group into a 'block'.

Next, computers seek the 'solution'

, a string to append to the end of the block that allows the SHA-256 hash of the block to fulfil a partial hash collision (i.e. the starting characters of the hash are '0's).

It is worth noting for Bitcoin that modifications will be made

every 2016 blocks (roughly two weeks) by increasing the difficulty of the partial hash collision such that it takes approximately 10 minutes for each block to be found. This is an important feature because of Moore’s Law suggesting that computing power doubles every two years, and Bitcoin is structured such that new Bitcoins enter the system in a orderly, predictable manner unperturbed by external factors

.

When a match is found, the computer that determines the 'solution' is given Bitcoins as reward, and propagates the block to the rest of the network. Due to the work involved in finding the match, these computers are known as ‘miners’. 'Blocks' are then linked together to form a

This linking is done by appending the 'solution' of the previous 'block' to the header of the next 'block'. As SHA algorithms produce an unpredictable output if the input is altered even slightly, this means that no attacker can easily alter the ledger, or history of transactions, without having to re-compute all the 'solutions' again.



If users in the network have conflicts in their 'ledger', they elect to trust the 'ledger' with more 'work' done, or in this case, the longest 'blockchain'. If two conflicting chains of the same length are detected, then users will keep track of both 'blockchain's until one of them is longer than the other by an

As of writing, the Bitcoin community has decided on 6 as this magic number, meaning that a transaction is really only considered through if it is in the current blockchain, and there are 6 blocks after it.



Fraud Prevention

Now, let us consider what might need to happen if, say, Ephraem, decides to want to cheat Alice by double spending money.

For this to work, Ephraem will make a transaction to Alice, wait until Alice accepts the transaction as valid, then subsequently injecting a longer valid block chain. As the community is dependent on the proof of work, if Ephraem can pull this off, he will technically be able to ‘erase’ his transaction with Alice.

From the above, for Ephraem to do this, he has to come up with a consecutive chain of 6 blocks by himself, faster than the rest of the world working on it. While he may get lucky the first or even the second time, it is near impossible to replicate the efforts 6 times



However, the above assumes that Ephraem is working alone. In reality, miners usually work together in a group, known as a ‘mining guild’. Each miner contributes computing power, and any Bitcoin earned is shared amongst everyone in the guild, which allows for more reliable returns on mining. BTC Guild, currently the largest Bitcoin mining guild, has obtained 6 consecutive blocks in a row multiple times. While BTC Guild conducts its mining operations legitimately, the fact that this situation has occurred shows us that the potential that a determined group of people may spoil the Bitcoin market is present.



Taking Stock


Before moving on, it is essential that we achieve a holistic view of Cryptocurrency by examining their potential socio-economical impacts.

1. Mobility of Money

Cryptocurrency can be easily transferred between

, if both users run the same code and adhere to the same protocol. The lack of a middleman in such a scenario therefore reduces transaction fees, and its digital implementation increases the mobility of money

.

On the positive side, this increased mobility of money carries the potential of

In Argentina, Bitcoin was portrayed to “ offer a safe haven” from rapidly depreciating government peso. Research has shown that micro-credit provides a repeatedly proven method to help families escape the poverty cycle. Venezuelan citizens have also turned to using cryptocurrency mining as a means of combating hyperinflation.

Yet, mobility of money may be easily

Silk Road, a darknet market for illegal drugs, conducts all its transactions via Bitcoin, offering its users privacy to escape the long arm of the law. Nearly 300,000 Bitcoins (approximately 3.12 trillion USD) were seized, and Bitcoin experienced a drop of nearly 25% in terms of USD/Bitcoin exchange rates when the news was announced.

A visceral response for policymakers might be to impose a strict ban on Cryptocurrencies, but such an approach

With the widespread adoption of Cryptocurrencies at the present, and the peer-to-peer nature of implementation, it is almost impossible to impose a blanket ban. Consider as analogy the laws against content piracy via torrents. Legal authorities face huge difficulties in tracking down users torrenting copyrighted materials, and are therefore unable to execute the laws in a meaningful manner. Like Cryptocurrencies, the act of torrenting itself is not illegal, but the potential for abuse is present and should be discouraged.

Policymakers may consider instead to turn their attention to the entry and exit ramps , where Cryptocurrencies are exchanged for fiat currencies. Not only do these ramps serve as chokepoints for legal authorities to focus their efforts on, it seems likely that regulation, rather than a strict ban will allow for communities to harness the benefits that Cryptocurrencies provide.

2. Privacy and Vulnerability

In theory, Cryptocurrency users need not reveal any personal information to operate in a network.

In practice, however, there are many avenues through which a user’s public address and his or her identity

A 2017 research concluded that various strategies were capable of identifying up to 60% of Bitcoin users of the MyBitcoin service. Vulnerabilities exist both in the network (through identifying and tracing transactions) and out of the network (posting public keys on forums, IP addresses, geographical information, etc) which when combined would offer the potential of unmasking the identity of a user.



Furthermore, while Cryptocurrencies were developed such that no trust needs to be placed in human agencies, people end up placing their faith in various entities such as online wallet services. People would then pay for it when MyBitcoin shut down, resulting in losses of 154,406 Bitcoins, or when Mt. Gox lost 744,408 Bitcoins in a hack . The huge financial incentives for attackers, alongside immature security technology, makes Bitcoin exchanges a tempting target.

Users of current Cryptocurrency networks are therefore cautioned: Though the network itself may be relatively private and self-secure, the logistics involved in operating in the network may result in opening up a different can of worms.

3. Tax Evasion

While the Bitcoin white paper was only published in 2009, the creation of a digital currency was predicted back in 1999 by Nobel Laureate Milton Friedman. He predicted that such an innovation would be motivated by

- when trades happened behind the veil of cryptography, the government has a harder time imposing the appropriate taxes. Cryptocurrency thus provides a tax haven

.

However, taxes were created as a means to fund public goods and services, which suffer the tragedy of the commons . How societies adopting Cryptocurrency address the funding of shared infrastructure and services will likely play a large part to whether or not Cryptocurrencies can be sustainably adopted as the de facto currency in the long term.

4. Adoption as a Global Currency

If money serves to act as an intermediary to facilitate transactions, why not extend its effectiveness by creating a global currency, one that is not bounded by politics or society? This question is multi-faceted, and can only be insufficiently explored in this essay.

Various economic and monetary unions have been explored and used in the past and present, the most well-recognised examples are the Euro and the US Dollar. The formation of economic and monetary unions have also been

, with one of the more well-known works being Mundell’s theory on Optimum Currency Areas , further developed by Kenen and McKinnon . Optimum Currency Areas analyse the potential of geographical neighbours forming an economic or monetary union through adoption of a common currency. It argues that a successful currency union requires four criteria: Labour mobility, Capital mobility, Risk-sharing system, and Common business cycles.

The 2009 European Sovereign Debt Crisis highlighted the importance of some of these criteria. Originally, the European Monetary Union enacted a clause that called for a no-bailout policy, intended to ensure that the growth of countries in the union will not be dragged down by other countries. In 2010, however, the European committee realised that this was unfeasible and unsustainable. Without any means to help the Euro pull through shocks together, the currency union bears no meaning in crises. To attest to this, the stability of the US Dollar is commonly attributed to the mechanisms which are in place to allow the Federal Government of the United States to provide fiscal transfers to states as a stabilising measure, allowing for shock absorption and greater sustainability

.

It is unclear, in the hands of a currency unmanaged by any central authority, how economic shocks will play out. Will regional boundaries matter? Will concepts like ‘country’ increase or diminish in significance?

5. Usage of non-fiat currencies

Intentionally or not, the world has already seen attempts to introduce money outside fiat currencies

. In jail cells it is common to see cigarettes or ramen used as money for other objects; Tide detergent bottles were noted to have been used by drug dealers. These currencies see localised usage as a method



In online games we also see the introduction of

virtual currencies. These monetary systems are constructs meant to facilitate the game’s economy, as another ends for players to work towards. Yet, in recent times it has been noted that these virtual currencies could also be treated as an alternate currency. While often small in impact, Second Life (which was registered to have a million active users per month) and its in-game currency Linden Dollars have came under scrutiny. A 2012 European Central Bank report was published to analyse the potential price and financial stability impacts virtual currencies had on real currencies. Conclusions were drawn that at the point in time of writing,

this was provided that the scope and adoption continued to be limited. Optimistically, the report even predicted that such schemes would increase financial innovation and provide users with greater convenience. In 2015 another report was published, finding that risks are entailed when dealing with these systems, but otherwise sees no need to provide modifications to the current legal framework.

Tencent’s QQ-coins (alternatively named Q-coins) were judged by China’s central government to be

In contrast to Linden Dollars, QQ-coins were introduced as an acceptable payment method for auctions on Taobao.com, and were noted to have been involved in cases where gamblers attempted to circumvent the country’s strict anti-gambling laws.

With their adoption becoming more commonplace, the currency substitution effect of Cryptocurrencies can not be neglected. An increasing lean towards such payment methods will see a reduction in central banks’ ability to influence short-term interest rates, which limits measures to encourage or discourage growth based on a country’s position.

It can be argued that this was the ultimate aim for Cryptocurrencies: a decentralisation of financial power which ultimately meant that central banks and authorities have less power to control such situations. It has to be remembered, however, that the world has yet to see a large-scale substitution on a global level, and how situations play out in the interim is not yet known.

While we are only capable of speculation at this point, we should indubitably seek to understand Cryptocurrency, and attempt to see how its ideologies

and potential for evolution will benefit society.